Can a practicing surgeon detect early lymphedema reliably?

BACKGROUND Lymphedema may be identified by simpler circumference changes as compared with changes in limb volume. METHODS Ninety breast cancer patients were prospectively enrolled in an academic trial, and seven upper extremity circumferences were measured quarterly for 3 years. A 10% volume increase or greater than 1 cm increase in arm circumference identified lymphedema with verification by a lymphedema specialist. Sensitivity and specificity of several different criteria for detecting lymphedema were compared using the academic trial as the standard. RESULTS Thirty-nine cases of lymphedema were identified by the academic trial. Using a 10% increase in circumference at two sites as the criterion, half the lymphedema cases were detected (sensitivity 37%). When using a 10% increase in circumference at any site, 74.4% of cases were detected (sensitivity 49%). Detection by a 5% increase in circumference at any site was 91% sensitive. CONCLUSIONS An increase of 5% in circumference measurements identified the most potential lymphedema cases compared with an academic trial.